Pre-election paranoia in Turkey, or a real threat for the first time since 2003?

As the Turkish presidential elections approach, there is an uncanny feeling in the air. Maybe a sense of real hope that there will be a different result for the first time in 20 years, or perhaps a delusion that comes with desperation amongst the left-wing public. What can be said for certain is that this time, unlike any other time, there is paranoia felt on both sides of the political spectrum.

President Erdogan of Turkey has been in power since 2003. He previously served as the elected Prime Minister of the country from 2003 until 2014 and has been serving as the President ever since. However, a major change in the Turkish constitutional system happened during his first term as the President – a constitutional amendment was passed with a public referendum in the Spring of 2017, which set aside decades of parliamentary system tradition.

The previous general elections in 2018 marked the transition from a parliamentary system to a presidential one and resulted in a victory for Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The upcoming elections are to be held using a two-round system which are set to take place on May 14th and May 28th of this year.

However, as time is ticking for D-Day and both sides of the public wait nervously, the Justice and Development Party (AKP) under the leadership of President Erdogan are taking action to eliminate rival politicians. Is this a sign of anxiety? Or is it simply a means of showing power? Perhaps to establish a sense of fear among those in opposition?

Ekrem Imamoglu, the current serving Mayor of the City of Istanbul, has gained the admiration of the general public with his strong stance against anti-democratic and anti-progressive ideologies. He was elected with 4.1 million votes and achieved success with a margin of 13,000 votes against his AKP opponent in the 2019 Mayoral Elections as a joint candidate of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the Good Party (IYI Parti). His election was annulled by the Turkish election board due to allegations of electoral fraud and a re-vote was ordered, which was, once again, in favour of Imamoglu.

The question in everyone’s minds regarding the upcoming elections was whether Imamoglu would consider running for President. He was considered to be a strong opposition to Erdogan due to his public admiration, but he was a relatively new face in Turkish politics. It was very clear over the course of Imamoglu’s mayorship that he was the target of AKP and Erdogan’s political strategy. Therefore, it came as no shock to the left-wing public and politicians that Imamoglu was sentenced to prison and banned from politics for over two years. The ruling came in December 2022 on the basis of a comment that the Mayor of Istanbul made to the media in 2019, calling members of Turkey’s election council ‘fools’. Human Rights Watch stated that the conviction ‘violated Mayor Imamoglu’s rights to free speech and political association and interferes with the right of millions of voters in Istanbul to elect a mayor of their choosing as their political representative.’

The sense of threat felt by the current government is justified by approval ratings which are on a downward trend. It was revealed in July 2022 that 53.7% of Turks disapproved of Erdogan’s performance. The survey, MetroPoll’s monthly “The Pulse of Turkey”, further showcased that 7.3% of voters who previously supported Erdogan in the 2018 elections now disapproved of the government.